Blogs

<p>Risk trades are running wild today. November was one of the best months for equities ever and we've picked right up in December with small caps joining the party and the Russell 2000 up 2.1%. Bonds are bid as well with yields at multi-month lows across the board. In FX, that's translating into US dollar […]

<h1><strong>Monday</strong></h1> <p>BoJ Governor Ueda continues to be uncertain about them hitting the 2% target sustainably:</p> <ul><li><strong>Cannot say with conviction that inflation will hit 2% sustainably</strong>.</li><li>Japan economy is recovering moderately.</li&g

<ul><li>We've been surprised on the upside this year with growth</li><li>Inflation is still well-above target but moving in the right direction</li><li>People who dropped out of the labor market in the pandemic came back in 2023 and we had more immigration</li><li>We think the right thing to do r

<p>Europe has picked up where it left off last month:</p><ul><li>STOXX 600 +1.0%</li><li>German DAX, +1.1%</li><li>France CAC +0.5%</li><li>UK FTSE 100 +1.0%</li><li>Spain's IBEX +0.7%</li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB +0.6%</li></ul> This article was w

<p>Powell is starting the Q&amp;A.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>It's premature to say that mon pol is restrictive enough</li><li>Fed will raise rates if needed to lower inflation</li><li>Fed is making rate decisions meeting by meeting</li><li>Uncertainty over economic outlook is 'unusually elevated'</li><li>Fed funds range well i

<p>I think we got a preview of what Powell will say today in comments from Daly and Williams yesterday:</p><p><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-daly-its-still-too-early-to-know-if-fed-is-done-hiking-rates-20231130/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Daly: It's still too early t

<p>On the face of it, today's miss in the US ISM manufacturing survey wasn't a big one. It was at 46.7 compared to 47.6. But I don't think the consensus was accurate for what the market was expecting due to an extremely strong regional print yesterday. That had people talking about a 50 reading so […]

<ul><li>We are on track to 2% inflation</li><li>Housing inflation is what I'm watching, if it comes down to 2%, then we will be on the right path</li><li>Labor market is very strong</li><li>If shocks come, we'll figure it out</li><li>Asked about what he sees as the biggest risk t

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-construction-spending-04-vs-04-expected-20231101/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior </a>was +0.4%</li></ul><p>The IRA and CHIPS Acts are keeping US construction healthy despite a slowdown in housing.</p> This