Blogs

The oil market is fed up with production growth

Forex

<p>It's a buy-everything market today, with one big exception.</p><p>Oil fell sharply today in the past two hours. The catalyst: US oil drilling rigs rose by 5 in the latest Baker Hughes weekly count. OPEC+ now has around 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity and there's no sign yet of US production growth falling

The market-Fed reaction function has changed

Forex

<p>This has gotten out of hand — The rate cut pricing just won't stop.</p><p>US 2s are down 15.6 bps to 4.55% and Fed funds futures are pricing in 132 bps of cuts next year. Pricing for the first cut on March 20 is now at 73%.</p><p>It's tough to square this with a series of Fed […]

Gold touches an all-time high at $2075

Forex

<p>This is the moment of truth for gold. I like the setup here, as I always do on December seasonals. In addition, the Fed is going to pivot dovishly and the dollar looks out-of-gas.</p><p>Gold is now up $35 on the day at $2071. I don't get the sense that gold is crowded even as it […]

Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 1.2% vs 1.8% prior

Forex

<p>The latest tracker from the Atlanta Fed fits into the market's narrative of falling growth. The problem would be if it falls below 0% but 1.2% is still fine.</p><p>"After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Ma

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