Weak US GDP Data Points to Dovish Surprise in the Core PCE Report

The US dollar found itself on the back foot Thursday after a mixed bag of economic releases, including a downward revision to the third-quarter GDP growth estimate from 5.2% to 4.9%. The GDP Price Index also saw a downward adjustment, from 3.5% to 3.3%, indicating a smaller inflationary impact on growth than initially anticipated. While Initial Jobless Claims came in slightly below expectations at 205,000, the overall data failed to impress, contributing to a broad-based USD selloff in the afternoon.EURUSD seized the opportunity to extend its recent rally, soaring above 1.1000 for the first time since early November. The softer dollar, coupled with growing expectations for a dovish surprise in the upcoming PCE data, fuelled the euro's ascent. Markets anticipate a smaller-than-forecast rise in the core PCE Price Index, potentially paving the way for a slower pace of Fed tightening and further euro gains. Should the data confirm these expectations, parity could be within reach for the EUR/USD pair. GBPUSD fluctuated around 1.2700 after UK retail sales defied expectations with a 1.3% jump in November. This seemingly positive development was offset by a downward revision to Q3 GDP growth, which tempered sterling's enthusiasm. The pair's near-term direction likely hinges on the PCE data and broader risk sentiment. A dovish surprise from the data could lift the pound alongside global equities, while a hawkish tilt could trigger a pullback for GBPUSD. The Japanese yen weakened after minutes from the Bank of Japan's October meeting reiterated its commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy. This stance, coupled with a modest dollar uptick, pushed USDJPY higher despite speculation about a potential policy shift in early 2024. The divergence in Fed and BoJ policy paths could cap further gains for the USDJPY pair, with yen bulls awaiting any hawkish signals from the BoJ in the coming months. Gold prices climbed to a near three-week high above $2,055 before retreating slightly on a firmer dollar. However, the precious metal's appeal remains underpinned by the prospect of a global rate-cutting cycle in 2024, with the Fed potentially softening its hawkish stance after the PCE data release. Any dovish surprise could trigger a further rally for gold, while a hawkish tilt could lead to a temporary dip, presenting a buying opportunity for investors. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index takes center stage later today, with investors dissecting every detail for clues about the Fed's future rate trajectory. A dovish surprise could send the dollar tumbling and propel risk assets higher, while a hawkish tilt could trigger a reversal of recent trends. With central bank policies and economic data taking center stage across major economies, buckle up for a potentially volatile ride in global markets.

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