Goldman Sachs' view on China for the year ahead is not confidence inspiring

<p>Goldman Sachs head of global currency spoke in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday, mulling further underperformance from China ahead:</p><ul><li>“You want to treat EM and EM ex-China differently. Chinese assets have been pretty uncorrelated with a lot of other EM assets for some time: that has been true on the equity side and also the fixed-income side</li><li>despite an "aggressive hiking cycle by the Fed, a strong dollar and a slowing China, EM assets have performed resiliently.”</li><li>but the continued deceleration in China is a disappointment</li></ul><p>From EMs-ex China in 2024:</p><ul><li>"Emerging-market central banks hiked interest rates early, proactively and aggressively to address the coming inflationary shock. The fact that they were ahead of the game compared to a lot of developed markets I think definitely helped them,”</li><li>“That macro combination is looking much better than what it has been, and that is a pretty positive thing for EM assets. We expect to see positive total returns in EM assets next year.”</li></ul><p>The way analysts are queueing up to nail the coffin shut on China it might be just the time to approach 2024 with an open mind on China outperfomance. </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

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