Dallas Fed December services sector outlook -8.7 vs -11.6 prior

<ul><li>Services sector outlook -8.7 vs -11.6 prior</li><li>Revenue +4.3 vs -2.4 prior</li><li>Employment +4.2 vs +5.7 prior</li><li>Wages +16.4 vs +16.8 prior</li><li>Company outlook -0.7 vs -8.1 prior</li></ul><p>Selected comments:</p><ul><li>The election coupled with recession narratives continue to add to and
contribute to overall uncertainty. Uncertainty tends to pause or stall
our market segment in general, which leads to overall stagnation.</li><li>Both our residential and commercial division saw a 19 percent decrease
in revenue month over month and a 33 percent decrease year over year.
Orders are significantly down for the year and the month of December.
This could be a rough ride for the next year or so.</li><li>Economic slowdown is very noticeable in the U.S., especially in the
government sector, and globally such as in Canada, Europe, China and
Asia, which are our main export destinations.</li><li>We have seen an increase in activity over the last month. We are a
small talent search firm, and we are seeing more requests for talent
than what is available currently in the market. That means, to us, that
our clients, who are small to mid-size companies, have more confidence
in the market.</li><li>Our backlog for the first quarter of 2024 is considerably lower than
the fourth quarter of 2023. It is hard to tell if this is the typical
slowdown at the end of the year or more systemic.</li><li>Improving inflation, a lower 10-year treasury rate and a still
historically low unemployment rate. The job market seems to be
stabilizing as hiring cools and retention rates improve.</li><li>The labor market continues to be challenging, with unqualified
candidates flooding the marketplace and qualified candidates requesting
wages that are unsustainable. </li><li>We are seeing a slowdown in business. Not sure if this is temporary or a
sign of deterioration of business conditions. More data and time are
required to make an appropriate determination.</li><li>We think the geopolitical situation and America's status in it is so
much worse than three years ago. Besides that, we think we have a
strong economy through the first quarter of 2024.</li><li>Current oil prices are changing our outlook for the second half of 2024
as we see our revenue decreasing. We are seeing retraction from many
of our customers at this point.</li><li>There seems to be an increase in the amount of talk about recession and
the drop in market numbers in the media in the next coming months.
It's been that way for the last 12 months though. It’s hard to get a
grip on what's going to happen.</li></ul><p>The bolded comment captures America perfectly right now.</p><p>More comments from the survey <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2023/2312#tab-comments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.