<p>The extraordinary times continue with historically sharp declines in equity markets as well as a widening of spreads in credit and peripheral bond markets . The underlying driver has been the continued acceleration in the spread of the COVID-19 disease, which looks set to trigger a lockdown of most of Europe and the US within […]
Week Ahead – Emperor Dollar Reigns Supreme Amid Market Apocalypse
<p>The virus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the global economy and financial markets. Stocks are in freefall, commodity currencies are getting hammered, and even safe havens like gold can’t shine as the market meltdown is forcing major funds to deleverage by ‘selling everything’. In this panicky environment, investors are unlikely to pa
The Big Picture: Global Fiscal and Monetary Responses to COVID-19
<p>Since our last update on Wednesday morningof global fiscal and monetary policy responses to the spread of COVID-19, we have seen a few notable developments: In Europe, more fiscal policy packages have been announced by countries and existing packages been fortified. Spain unveiled a EUR117bn – 9% of GDP – package (with private investment s
Large Bounce in AUD/USD, But is it Enough?
<p>Earlier this week, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had an emergency monetary policy meeting, in which they cut interest rates a record low of 25bps. In addition, the RBA announced the start of their own quantitative easing program. The government also put together a fiscal stimulus plan of nearly $10 billion dollars. However, that [
Week Ahead – Tougher Times Ahead?
<p>Country UK The UK is not taking the coronavirus lightly, despite initial criticism against the government to the contrary. The number of cases now stands at 3,983 with 177 deaths, a significant acceleration on a day earlier. Much darker days lie ahead but both the government and Bank of England have announced huge fiscal and […]
Oil Market Week Ahead: Hunkering Down
<p>Next week will bring an ample amount of economic indicators but for the oil market the most serious ones will be information on the spread of the coronavirus. As the number of cases on both sides of the Atlantic are rising and the UK, Europe, and some US states are beginning to lockdown, one way […]
Week Ahead: The Wheels are in Motion
<p>Last week can be summed up as “the week global governments saved the world economy”, in the wake of the economic fallout of the coronavirus. Global central banks continued to slash interest rates and provide liquidity through QE and extension of credit lines. Individual governments stepped up to the plate and passed massive amounts of [&
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders to Bet USD Index Futures Lower as Fed might Cut Rate by -50 bps bps in 2 Weeks
<p>As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 25, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +849 contracts to 26 077. Speculative long positions dropped -638 contracts and short positions declined -1 487 contracts. Bets on both sides obviously shrank as the market pondered about the next move of the […]
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Euro as the Currency Rallied Despite Soaring Coronavirus Cases in the Region
<p>As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 3, NET LENGTH in USD Index droped -2 589 contracts to 22 488. Speculative long positions fell -7 880 contracts and short positions declined -5 291 contracts. Bets on both sides obviously shrank as the Fed adopted emergency rate cut by […]
AUD/NZD Forecasting The Path Lower
<p>In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliottwave chart of AUDNZD. The chart below from March 3 update shows that the cycle from November 8, 2019 high unfolded as 5 waves impulsive structure. The move down in wave (A) ended at 1.0304 low. Based on Elliottwave theory, a 3 waves […]