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<p>Signing of the Phase I trade deal marks an end of the beginning the trade war between the US and China. While the deal covers various areas of great concerns to the US, including China’s imports of US goods and services, China’s handling of intellectual properties, technological transfer and the financial services industry, and renminbi [&

<p>China’s foreign trade surprised to the upside in December. Exports rose +7.6% y/y in the last month of 2019, compared with consensus of +2.9%. Meanwhile, imports jumped +13.6% y/y, beating expectations of +9.6%. Both outbound and inbound shipment improved in December from a month ago. Exports in November contracted -1.9% y/y, while imports

<p>As in last year, Chinese Yuan will remain directed by the US-China trade war in 2020. Although China’s economy continues to struggle and PBOC’s monetary policy is tilted to the accommodative side, CNY should stabilize against USD if trade negotiations are smooth. Elevated inflation should keep PBOC cautious in adopting monetary easing. As

<p>A number of good news has increased optimism over China. Following announcement of a Phase I trade deal with the US, the latest set of economic data surprised to the upside in November. However, we expect the bullishness will be short-lived. For the year ahead, the government will have to continue stimulating the economy via […]

<p>Headline CPI in China accelerated to +4.5% y/y in November, from +3.8% a month ago. The key contributor to strong inflation is fresh vegetable and pork prices. Non-food price climbed +1% y/y from +0.9% in October. Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation steadied at +1.4% y/y. Upstream PPI contracted -1.4%, improving from -1.6% in

<p>Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) suggested that the manufacturing China improved in November. Improvement in manufacturing PMIs signaled that upcoming industrial production data can surprise to the upside. The official PMI improved +0.9 point to 50.2 in November. This marks the first expansion (above 50) since March and the second largest

<p>We expect China’s monetary policy will be more expansionary in coming months as the economy slows further. Struggling between boosting growth and curbing CPI acceleration, the authority has probably chosen the former. Meanwhile, PBOC is obliged to do more as fiscal stimulus remains modest. PBOC has lowered interest rates three times this m

<p>China’s major economic data in October all missed expectations and slowed from a month ago. Growth in industrial production decelerated to +4.7% y/y, from +5.8% in September. Retail sales growth weakened to 7.2% m/m, compared with +7.8% in September. Part of the reasons can be deferred spending ahead of the Double 11 festival in China. [&h

<p>Headline CPI in China accelerated further to +3.8% y/y in October. This had exceeded consensus of +3.4% and breached the 3% target for the first time since 2013. Food price, in particular pork price, was again the key driver for the strong inflation. Food inflation soared +15.5% y/y, compared with +11.2% in September. Pork price […]

<p>For the first time in over 3 years, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowers the rate of the 1-year medium lending facility (MLF) by -5 bps to 3.25%. This surprising move underlines the rapid deterioration of domestic growth and paves the way for a cut in the loan prime rate (LRP), the current main policy […]