Blogs

Big jump in mortalities Another spot where the cases are jumping at an alarming rate is Turkey, where they reported 76 new deaths today to 725 and 3862 new confirmed cases. They conducted 20,023 tests yesterday which is a modest number for a country of 82 million.

WI at 0.780/0.770% on the bid/ask You start to wonder if the larger sizes eventually push up yields. The Fed can buy bonds but not at auction. Of course you can turn around and sell them to the Fed but I don't know about the risk-reward on that trade.

The latest numbers from Italy The curve has undoubtedly flattened in Italy but I'm not sure what that tells us about the economy. Does a flat curve really bring us that much closer to an economic re-opening?

EIA lowers US oil production estimate The US could argue that's a 10% cut but cutting because you're woefully uneconomic isn't the same as a voluntary cut. In any case, the entire thing has turned into spin, threats and politics. I think the narrative that OPEC or Russia wants to crush shale is a false […]

What will the House want in return? The $350B small business loan program is one of the greatest free-money giveaway programs of all time. So far $50B has been given away and the only reason it's not completely tapped out yet is that people don't know about it and banks haven't been able to process […]

Down -0.16% on the day The price action started to reverse after the case and death numbers.  Crude oil prices are also weighing on equities as they are down $-2 on the day or -7.63%.

USDCHF inches to the downside The USDCHF is making new session lows and int he process is getting closer to the 30.2% retracement 0.96833 below that is the 200 hour moving average at 0.96717 (green line in the chart below).

Indices still up but coming off the highs The rise of 3154 new deaths and increase of 43,438 new cases from the CDC were a bit of a shock in what was decent news from hotspots like NY over the last few days.  It makes you wonder about the reporting of the numbers, doesn't it?  

When trust fails…. There are times in trading when trading becomes choppy and unreliable.  That leads to distrust and eventually to just shutting off the screen.  I have that feeling today.

A look at USD/CAD If the low of 1.3945 breaks, watch 1.3922 which was the low on Friday March 26. That move came in low liquidity late that week and was quickly reversed the following week.