Blogs

Comments from the Dallas Fed President on Fox I find it bizarre that he's trying to forecast GDP this year to within a half-percentage point. There is so much uncertainty.

<p>US ISM manufacturing index dropped to 41.5 in April, down from 49.1, but beat expectation of 36.7. That’s, nonetheless, the lowest reading since April 2009. Also, the 7.6 pts decline is the largest one-month fall since October 2008. Looking at some details, new orders dropped -15.1 to 27.1. Production dropped -20.2 to 27.5. Employmen

<p>Yen and Swiss Franc surge broadly today as risk aversion seems to be back as May starts. Warnings from Amazon and Apple are cited as the reason for the decline in US futures. On the other hand, Chinese is trading sharply lower on concerns that US President Donald Trump would step up tariffs wars with […]

<p>Many times, USD/CAD has been discussed in the context of its relationship with Crude Oil.  We are no exception;  as many times we write how a move in USD/CAD can be attributed to a move in WTI Crude Oil.  The Canadian Dollar is often positively correlated with WTI; therefore the 2 assets move together (USD/CAD […]

<p>Macklem was Senior Deputy Governor from 2010-14 Helped the BoC respond to the 2008-09 financial crisis Currently Dean of Rotman School of Management at UofT Tiff Macklem has been appointed the tenth Governor of the Bank of Canada and will take over for Governor Poloz on June 3, the day of the BoC’s next scheduled […]

<p>The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on May 5. Last week we forecast that the RBA would hold the cash rate steady at 0.25% out to at least December 2023. We argued that the unemployment rate and other measures of spare capacity in the labour market, such as the underemployment rate, would hold well […]

<p>Global markets have taken on a much more upbeat outlook over the last month. The S&P500 for instance was up 18% in April, its largest monthly rise since 1987. The technology heavy Nasdaq rose 21% last month while the Russell 2,000 index, which captures smaller American companies, rose 23%. There have been a number of […]

<p>The volatile risk sentiment last week changed to somewhat more consolidation this week. Incoming GDP figures from the euro area and the US naturally both pointed to a dismal first quarter, but we expect to see an even worse Q2 as many countries will remain in lockdown for large parts of it, only undertaking gradual […]

<p>GBPAUD is currently pushing up against the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.9460 after a bounce near the 200-day SMA’s region, which ultimately kept intact the medium-term positive outlook. Looking at the short-term oscillators, they paint an optimistic picture. The MACD is in the negative region and below its red trigger line but

<p>The S&P 500 Futures remain under pressure after they pared a part of gains made in the prior sessions yesterday. Market sentiment was dampened by a series of downbeat economic data. Later today, latest data on the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (36.7 expected), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manu