<p>Dollar turned weaker overnight as markets on talks that Fed could eventually go into negative interest rates. Safe haven flows also continued to recede in generally, with NASDAQ extending recent rebound, even though DOW’s rally was still capped. Australian Dollar continues to surge higher, shrugging off RBA’s economic projectio
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RBA Forecasts Double-Digit Contraction and Unemployment in First Half of the Year
<p>As revealed in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SMP), RBA sharply cut economic forecasts for this year. GDP is projected to record double-digit contraction in the first half of the year before recovery in 2021. The unemployment rate could peak at 10%, while inflation could fall the negative territory, this quarter. Policymakers did
What to Expect from CCP’s Two Sessions?
<p>After two months’ delay, the long-awaited “two sessions” will be held in two weeks’ time. The National People’s Congress (NPC) is scheduled on May 22 while the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee (CPPCC) is scheduled on May 21. The meetings this year have symbolic meaning from the perspective of the Chinese Communist Pa
Week Ahead – RBNZ May Increase QE; Aussie, UK and US Data to Deepen that Sinking Feeling
<p>There can be no hiding from the awful economic data that is now pouring in from all angles as we move well into the second quarter. Australian jobs, UK Q1 GDP, and US retail sales and inflation numbers will be the next key releases to showcase the virus turmoil. But amid growing optimism about the […]
Wall Street Higher Despite Historically Terrible Jobs Report, Oil Rises, Gold Softens, Bitcoin Momentum
<p>US stocks are rising despite the worst monthly job loss on record. The US economy shed 20.5 million jobs in April, slightly better than the consensus estimate of 22 million job losses. The unemployment rate hit 14.7%, the highest since just after the Great Depression, but could have been 5 percentage points higher if workers […]
Nasty NFP Numbers
<p>The headline Nonfarm Payrolls number was -20,500,000 vs an expected -21,000,000 and a revised -870,000 for March. At any other point in time a 500,000 difference between the estimated and actual would have been a huge difference. However, these days, the actual number was considered roughly in line with expectations. The Unemployment Rat
US: Devastating Job Losses in April Takes Unemployment Rate to a Record-Setting 14.7%
<p>20.5 million jobs were lost in April’s payrolls report as many businesses shut down to slow the spread of COVID-19. April’s jobs report shatters records. Never before has so much economic activity come to a sudden, screeching halt. The unemployment rate skyrocketed to 14.7% in April, from 4.4% in March – blowing away the previo
Canada: COVID-19 Delivers Another Blow To Job Markets
<p>There were roughly 2 million fewer Canadians at work in April, bringing the cumulative losses since February to 3 million. The employment rate dropped to 52.1%, a level never before seen in the current measurement system (starting from 1976). The unemployment rate rose by 5.2 points to hit 13.0%. Perhaps more telling than the sheer [&helli
USD/JPY Outlook: Better than Feared US Labor Data Inflate Dollar
<p>Dollar rose across the board after US jobs data showed better than markets feared results in April. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment came below horrific forecasts (which showed expectations for the worst situation in jobs sector since Great Depression) and average earnings well overshot consensus. The USDJPY pair jumped from new seven-we
Canadian Employment Fell off the Charts in April
<p>Unprecedented 2 million drop in employment in April – 3 million since February. Unemployment rate spiked to 13.0% despite large number of people not looking for work Early green shoots suggest April close to downturn low It is perhaps a mark of the unprecedented economic shock under way that a 2 million drop in employment […]