Blogs

<p>It's tough to put into words how big and difficult-to-explain the moves at the front end have been yesterday and today.</p><p>CPI was hot yesterday and US 2s moved up to 4.39% from 4.33% but within hours that was erased. Later yesterday, yields fell further, presumably on slightly-dovish Fed comments and worries about Yeme

<p>The S&amp;P index is open, higher and trading above and below the all-time highest close ever at 4796.57 The gains are modest. Yesterday, the S&amp;P did move above that level again and backed off. Is today the day?</p><p>A snapshot of the market currently shows:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average up 77

<p>The US PPI data today came in weaker than expectations. That data neutralize the stronger-than-expected CPI data from yesterday. </p><p>That inflation storyline is congruent with the price action in currencies. There is little upside. There is little downside. The details on the economy are mixed. The trading price action is mi

<p>US equity futures are flat but banks stocks are largely lower.</p><p>One exception is JPMorgan, which beat analyst estimates. Here are comments</p><blockquote> The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and markets currently expect a soft landing. It is important to note that the econ

<p>Monday</p><p>Fed’s Logan (hawk – non voter) over the weekend said that the Fed shouldn’t rule out another rate hike given the recent easing in financial conditions and added that it’s appropriate to consider a slowdown in the pace of the Fed’s balance sheet runoff (although we knew that already from the recent FOMC Minutes):<

<p>The market's reaction to the tame US United for December shows:</p><ul><li>USD lower</li><li>Stocks higher</li><li>Yields lower.</li></ul><p>IN the forex:</p><ul><li>The USDJPY is back down toward its 100-day moving average of 144.87. Earlier today, the pric

<ul><li>Prior was +0.9% y/y (revised to +0.8%)</li><li>PPI m/m -0.1% vs +0.1% expected</li></ul><p>Core:</p><ul><li>PPI ex food and energy YoY 1.8% versus 1.9% expected. Prior month 2.0%</li><li>PPI ex food and energy MoM 0.0% versus +0.2% expected. Prior month 0.0%</li>&

<ul><li>December inflation number broadly confirmed assessment from December meetings</li><li>Once we are firmly on our way to 2%, then rate cut topic will come to the forefront</li><li>Interest rate cuts are not a near-term topic</li></ul><p>The question for all central banks are is: How much p

Middle East Tensions Drive OilOil prices are surging higher on Friday as worrying developments in the Middle East point to heightened supply disruptions. Iran reportedly seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman yesterday carrying around 145 tonnes of crude. While the attack was not linked to Houthi rebels, uncertainty in the area was […]

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