Blogs

<p>There has been a curious pattern in trading so far this year with oil prices bid up in Asia and then slammed down in US trading. That looked to be continuing today as oil hit a session low at 9 am ET. But it turned around from there and was big throughout US trading, erasing […]

<ul><li>2024 'appears to be a little better'</li><li>2025 looks better still</li><li>I expect more from Germany, we have a lot of structural issues</li><li>The ECB has achieved a lot on inflation</li></ul><p>The most distasteful trend so far in 2024 is central bankers takin

<ul><li>Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. </li><li>Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting expectations in most Districts and by exceeding expectations in three Districts,</li><li>Contacts from nearly all Districts

<p>The S&amp;P 500 has extended its decline to 45 points, or 0.95%, and 4721. That's a session low and comes with US 2-year yields up 14 bps on the day, erasing the decline from last Thurs/Fri.</p><p>Even with two days of declines, the losses in the S&amp;P 500 have barely dented the rally that started in […]

<ul><li>High Yield: 4.423%</li><li>WI level as the time of the auction: 4.415%</li><li>Tail: +0.8 basis points. Previous 1.5 bps, six-auction average -0.3 bps</li><li>Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.53X. Previous 2.55x, six-auction average 2.58x</li><li>Dealers: 17.33%. Previous 12.9%, six-auction a

<p>The U.S. Treasury will auction off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour (re-open). The </p><ul><li>High Yield: previously 4.213%</li><li>Tail: Previous 1.5 bps, six-auction average -0.3 bps</li><li>Bid-to-Cover Ratio: Previous 2.55x, six-auction average 2.58x</li><li>Deal

<p>The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q4 growth rises to 2.4% from 2.2% last. In their own words:</p><blockquote>The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 17, up from 2.2 on January 10. After recent releases from the US Department

<p>The USDJPY has continued it trend like move the upside today. In the process the price cracked above the 100-day moving average and 61.8% retracement of the move down from the November high. That level came in at 147.45. The subsequent run to the upside after that break, so the pair move up to a […]

<p>It's beginning to dawn on some people that spot ETFs won't be a white knight for the bitcoin market.</p><p>We're midway through the fourth day of bitcoin ETF trading and the results aren't anywhere near the +$2 billion the bitcoin bulls were touting in the first 48 hours. The path to a net +$15 billion by [&

<p>The AUDUSD has continued its move to the downside in trading today. Weaker China data helped to push the price further to the downside. Technicals have also had levels broken with the 38.2% at 0.66407, the 50% at 0.65699. The 200 day MA was also broken today opening the downside to more probing.</p><p>The price, however, [&hell