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<p>There is no ambiguity in the market reaction to the Federal Reserve statement.</p><p>The dot plot was moved towards market pricing, which is essentially validating it rather than pushing back against a market that was pricing in 114 bps in easing next year. The Fed took down the 2024 dot to 4.6% from 5.1%, which is […]

<p>The FOMC dot plot from September 2023 showed the median rate at the end of 2024 at 5.1%. In the December report:</p><ul><li>For 2024, the median fed funds target rate is now 4.6% vs 5.1% in June – down -0.50%</li><li>For 2025, the median fed funds target rate is now 3.6% vs 3.9% in June – down [&he

<p>Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement</p><p>For release at 2:00 p.m. EST</p><ul><li><a aria-labelledby="shareMenu" role="button" data-toggle="dropdown" title="Share" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20231213a.htm">Shar

<p>The headline is the median dot falling further than expected, putting a full 50 bps of easing into the curve rather than the 25 bps expected. In addition, there are five dots below that.</p><ul><li>Fed funds rate left unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected</li><li>Recent indicators suggest that growth of economi

<p>I always like to read the prior FOMC statement one last time before the new one is released. The second paragraph strikes me as one that will need to be largely re-written, likely to highlight progress on inflation. Here is the November 1, 2023 Fed statement:</p><blockquote>Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expan

<p>The S&amp;P index is working on its fifth day in a row higher. Having said that, the index is only up three points higher today or 0.06% at 4646.68. Nevertheless, the buyers are in full control. </p><p>What would be a bearish sign that sellers might anticipate further probing to the downside?</p><p>The level tha

<p>The EURUSD has defined key bookends that will define bullish and bearish bias through the FOMC decision. </p><p>On the upside (lower USD /more dovish Fed), the 200-hour MA at 1.07979 followed by the 200 day MA at 1.08255 are the upside targets. Getting above both those levels (and then the 38.2% at 1.08352) would open […

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