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Blogs
Is Europe in the Grip of Stagflation?
<p>The fires of inflation were kindled in the euro zone after demand forces came back strongly from the pandemic, and they started to spread when the Ukraine conflict sparked a surge in food and energy prices. The region has simultaneously been fending off a slowdown in economic activity since 2022, recording minimal growth in the […]
Yellen sees inflation coming down, but her forecast is far too conservative
<p>This is an extremely conservative forecast from Yellen.</p><p>The January and February US CPI prints were +0.5% and +0.4% m/m, respectively. Those will be lapped in a few months and CPI inflation is currently running at 3.1% y/y. A fall to a 2-handle is almost a sure thing and given the declines in oil an gas […]
It's all about the dot plot at the FOMC meeting
<p>The FOMC statement will be scrutinized as usual and so will the press conference from Powell but the market isn't expecting the Fed President to validate the 114 basis points of cuts priced into the Fed funds curve.</p><p>After all, it was only back in September that the median Fed dot indicated another rate hike this [&he
European equity close: The waiting game ahead of the Fed
<ul><li>Stoxx 600 flat</li><li>German DAX -0.2%</li><li>UK FTSE 100 +0.2%</li><li>French CAC -0.2%</li><li>Italy MIB -0.1%</li><li>Spain IBEX -0.1%</li></ul><p>There isn't much to report as we count down to the Fed decision.</p> This article was wri
The AUDUSD trades in an up and down range as traders await the next move.
<p>The FOMC rate decision will take place later at 2 PM with the Fed expected to keep rates unchanged. However, there is a lot of uncertainty from the details including the statement, the Fed Chair Powell comments, the "dot plot" and the measures of inflation, GDP, and employment from the central tendencies. </p><p>How a
EIA weekly US crode oil inventories -4259K vs -650K expected
<p>WTI crude oil was trading up 56 cents to $69.17 ahead of the data and are up about 40-cents more since the data.</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/eia-weekly-us-crode-oil-inventories-4632k-vs-1354k-expected-20231206/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior </a>was -46
Mixed open for US stocks. Nasdaq higher. Dow a little lower
<p>Trading activity in US stocks is underway, with market participants keenly awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision, scheduled for 2 PM ET. While there is a general consensus expecting no change in rates, the real focus lies on the accompanying statement, comments from Fed Chair Powell, and the updated forecasts for
World Bank warns that poorest countries face increasing risk of debt crisis
<p>The World Bank says developing countries spent a record $443.5 billion to service external debt in 2022 and that will rise 10% this year and the next. For the poorest countries, that's $88.9 billion with the total to surge by 40% in 2023-24, they say.</p><p>Those debt burdens threaten to swap the capacity to repay and [&he
US equities set for a fifth day of gains
<p>Historically, Fed days are incredibly good days to hold equities, with a long history of gains. The incredible equity rally of the past six week arguably started with the prior FOMC meeting.</p><p>S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% just ahead of the open and that would mark the fifth straight day of gains. The risk is [&hellip