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<ul><li>Prior 42.6</li><li>Services PMI 48.4 vs 49.8 expected</li><li>Prior 49.6</li><li>Composite PMI 46.7 vs 48.2 expected</li><li>Prior 47.8</li></ul><p>It's a wake up call for the euro as traders are reminded that the economy is indeed headed for a recession to w

<p>EUR/USD is down from 1.0996 to 1.0970 currently with EUR/GBP also easing from 0.8608 to 0.8595 at the moment. This follows the poor French PMI data <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-december-flash-services-pmi-443-vs-460-expected-20231215/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>, with s

<ul><li>Prior 45.4</li><li>Manufacturing PMI 42.0 vs 43.3 expected</li><li>Prior 42.9</li><li>Composite PMI 43.7 vs 45.0 expected</li><li>Prior 44.6</li></ul><p>That's a notable miss on estimates with both the services and manufacturing sectors contracting further th

<ul><li>Eurostoxx +0.4%</li><li>Germany DAX +0.4%</li><li>France CAC 40 +0.4%</li><li>UK FTSE +0.2%</li><li>Spain IBEX +0.1%</li><li>Italy FTSE MIB +0.4%</li></ul><p>There was a bit of a setback to yesterday's early optimism, as the ECB was less dovish th

<ul><li>Europe will be spared from a recession, the same applies to France</li></ul><p>Well, I wouldn't be too quick to rule out a possibility of a technical recession. Especially after the France Q3 GDP estimate <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-q3-final-gdp-01-vs-01-qq-prelim-20231130/"

<ul><li>Prior +4.0%</li><li>HICP +3.9% vs +3.8% y/y prelim</li><li>Prior +4.5%</li></ul><p>It's just a marginal revision higher to the initial estimates but the trend continues to point to slowing price pressures, largely due to a decline in energy prices. That being said, core annual infla

<ul><li>We will bring inflation back down to 2% target by 2025</li><li>Important signal yesterday was the changed inflation outlook</li><li>Monetary policy transmission is slightly faster than initially expected</li><li>We are on a plateau, "have to take the time to enjoy the view"</li>

<p>Their projections are only released twice a year, so there is some lag in the updating as they need to account for all of the developments in recent months. Here's the latest snapshot of their forecasts as released today:</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.</p><p>That being for EUR/USD at 1.0950, in which I detailed its potential impact in this post <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-held-back-closer-to-11000-for-now-awaits-pmi-data-20231215/" target="_blank" rel="follow">her

<p>The key catalyst for the dive lower this week was a more dovish Fed. That also led to a big rally in bonds, with 10-year yields still trading under 4% at 3.95% on the day currently. In turn, that translated to a break lower in USD/JPY below its 200-day moving average (blue line) and that […]