All eyes on US retail sales data due Tuesday, 15 August 2023 – preview

<p>Coming up at 8.30 am US Eastern time today, July retail sales data from the US:</p><p>Preview comments from Bank of America, looking for a solid beat. Bolding is mine:</p><p>We expect a robust retail sales report for July </p><p>Over the last two trading days, BofA Global Research analysts have published 12 notes on July card data. </p><ul><li>Total card spending per household (HH), as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, was up 0.1% year-over-year (y/y) in July.</li><li> Card spending per HH rose by a solid 0.7% month-over-month (m/m) on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis.</li></ul><p>We forecast above-consensus increases of 0.7% and 0.6% in the Census Bureau's July figures for retail sales ex-autos and the core control group (retail sales ex autos, gas. building materials and restaurants) respectively.</p><p>BoA add further that they expect to see "Discount apparel spend up and accelerating". </p><p>More:</p><ul><li>For the month of July, BAC aggregated credit and debit card data indicates Online spending (card not present) increased 1.7% Y/Y, a 1.9pt acceleration vs. June. </li><li>Growth in July was supported by July 4th (+9% Y/Y on the day), while the week of Prime Day saw 3% growth (vs. Adobe Analytics data suggesting 6% YN industry growth during the two-day event). </li><li>Online penetration of retail was at 25.9% in July, up 60bps Y/Y. Trends suggesting spend may be shifting back to Online are becoming more encouraging. Also, y/y change in BAC card spending data has been trending below other eCommerce data. we think eCornmerce industry could be growing 5-10%.</li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.