Preview: October non-farm payrolls by the numbers

<p>The bond market and US dollar backed off in a big way ahead Friday's 8:30 am ET release of non-farm payrolls but that could unwind in a big way on a strong report. Let's have a look at the numbers.</p><ul><li>Consensus estimate +180K (range +125 to +285K)</li><li>Private +158K</li><li>September +336K</li><li>Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.8% vs 3.8% prior</li><li>Participation rate consensus 62.8% prior</li><li>Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.0%</li><li>Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% y/y vs +4.2% prior</li><li>Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.2% prior</li><li>Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior</li></ul><p>October jobs so far:</p><ul><li>ADP report +113K vs +150K expected and +89K prior</li><li>ISM services employment not yet released (it's out 90 mins after NFP)</li><li>ISM manufacturing employment 46.8 vs 50.6 prior</li><li>Challenger Job Cuts -8.8% y/y vs +58.2% prior</li><li>Philly employment +4.0 vs -5.7 prior</li><li>Empire employment +3.1 vs -2.7prior</li><li>Initial jobless claims survey week 200K vs 202K last month (was the lowest since Sept)</li></ul><p>According to BMO, the seasonal bias is positive in October with 52% of readings above consensus and 48% below with the average beat at +71 and the average miss at -39K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been higher than expected 20% of the time and lower 44% of the time, with the remainder matching estimates.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.