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ECB Reduces PEPP Purchases, Upgrades Inflation forecasts
The ECB meeting came largely in line with expectations. While leaving the policy rates unchanged, the members confirmed that the PEPP program...
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BOE Hikes Bank Rate, Surprising the Market Two Months in a Row
The BOE surprised the market in two consecutive months. After failing to deliver rate hike in November, the members surprisingly increased the...
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Hawkish Fed Anticipates Three or More Rate Hikes Next Year
FOMC delivered a hawkish outlook at the December meeting. Besides doubling the size of tapering as we had anticipated, more than two-third of the...
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ECB Preview – Phase-Out of PEPP by March as Scheduled
The focus of this week’s ECB meeting is whether the PEPP would extend beyond March 2020 in light of the new Omicron variant and rapid increase the...
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BOE Preview – Delaying Rate Hike to February 2022
We expect the BOE to stand pat at this week’s meeting. October’s GDP came in weaker than expected, and the renewed restrictive measures to curb...
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FOMC Preview – Fed to Double Size of QE Tapering
The Fed this week will announce acceleration of QE tapering. With inflation approaching 7%, policymakers would likely revise its view on inflation...
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BOC Preview – Reiterating Rate Hike in First Half 2022 amidst Strong Economic Data
Following a hawkish move in October, we expect the BOC to keep the powder dry this week. Policymakers should acknowledge the strong GDP growth and...
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RBA Stayed Put, Cautiously Optimistic Over Domestic Economy
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.1% and the asset purchase program at AUD 4B/week. Policymakers maintained a cautiously optimistic...
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RBA Preview – Keeping Powder Dry on Mixed Data and Omicron Uncertainty
The RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.1%. Given the mixed economic data flow since the last meeting, the uncertainty of...
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Hawkish Powell Expects Fed to End QE Tapering a Few Months Earlier than Previously Anticipated
Despite concerns over the new coronavirus variant Omicron, Fed Chair Jay Powell’s testimony before the Senate was hawkish. He suggested that the...
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RBNZ Hiked Rate but More Cautious about Economic Outlook
The RBNZ raised the OCR by +25 bps to 0.75%, as we had anticipated. Policymakers sounded more cautiously about the economic outlook while...
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RBNZ To Lift Policy Rate Again after Strong Inflation
The RBNZ is ready to increase the policy rate again this week. The question is whether, in light of the latest strong inflation data, whether the...
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Rate Hike Speculations Heighten as Eurozone’s Inflation Accelerates Further
The latest ECB bulletin, European Commission’s latest inflation projections and the preliminary inflation data for October rekindled...
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Market Disappointed at BOE Left Bank at Historic Low. Downgraded Growth Forecast
We were surprised that the Committee voted with overwhelming majority to leave the Bank rate at 0.1%. Despite Governor Andrew Bailey’s...
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Fed Will Start Reducing Asset Purchases in Coming Weeks. Not in a Rush to Raise Rate
As widely anticipated, the Fed announced to taper its QE program. The Fed funds rate was kept unchanged at 0-0.25%. US dollar retreated after the...
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RBA Review – Ending Yield Curve Control and Pushed Forward First Rate Hike to 2023
The RBA tilted modestly to the hawkish side by formally ending the yield curve control and adjusting its forward guidance on the first rate hike....
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BOE Preview – Rate Hike Cycle to Begin?
The market has fully priced in a +15 bps increase BOE’s bank rate (currently at 0.1%). The mixed economic developments since the September...
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FOMC Preview – Tapering to Formally Begin
The November FOMC meeting would see the Fed making a formal announcement on QE tapering. We expect the plan would begin immediately and is...
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ECB Downplayed Urgency of Rate Hike to Tame Inflation
ECB’s meeting came in largely as we had anticipated. Policymakers acknowledged the stronger-than-expected inflation but downplayed the need to...
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Hawkish BOC Ends QE. May Hike Interest Rate in 2Q22 the Earliest
The BOC surprised to the hawkish side at the October meeting. Policymakers announced to end the QE program and begin the reinvestment process,...
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ECB Preview – ECB to Convince Market Low Interest Rate Still Necessary Despite Rising Inflation
The surge in electricity price has haunted the Eurozone since the last ECB meeting. Meanwhile, heightened inflation expectations have moved...
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BoC Preview – Further QE Tapering
As further QE tapering to CAD 1B/week has been fully priced in, the focus of this week’s BOC meeting is the forward guidance on rate hike. The...
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FOMC Minutes: QE Tapering can Come in As Soon As Mid-November
At the FOMC minutes for the September meeting, the members sent more hints about QE tapering. It is highly likely a formal announcement will be...
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RBNZ Hiked Policy Rate for First Time in 7 Years
For the first time in 7 years, the RBNZ increased the OCR by +25 bps to 0.5% in October. Policymakers pledged to tighten further in coming months...
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RBA Affirmed No Rate Hike Until 2024, Widening Policy Divergence with Counterparts
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.1%, and asset purchases at AUD 4B/month, in October. Despite sharp rise in housing prices, policymakers...