<p>China’s major economic data in October all missed expectations and slowed from a month ago. Growth in industrial production decelerated to +4.7% y/y, from +5.8% in September. Retail sales growth weakened to 7.2% m/m, compared with +7.8% in September. Part of the reasons can be deferred spending ahead of the Double 11 festival in China. [&h

<p>China’s economic data surprised to the downside in July. Delay in US tariff should have limited boost on China’s growth outlook. Industrial production gained +4.8% y/y in July, missing consensus of +5.8% and June’s 6.3%. The slowdown is the most severe since February 2009 and caught the market in surprise. Manufacturing PMIs compiled by go

<p>PBOC has recently made some changes in its interest rate policy. Following the move to link the loan prime rate (LPR) to open market operations, the medium lending facility (MLF) rate, the central bank over the weekend announced the plan to set a floor for mortgage rate. The first change essentially lowers banks’ lending rates [&hell

<p>China announced that 16 types of US exports will be exempted from tariff. While this may be a gesture ahead of the October trade negotiation, we view this as a sign of further weakness in china’s economic outlook. Trade data surprised to the downside in August with both exports and imports coming in weaker than […]

<p>China’s macroeconomic indicators showed significant weakness across the board. Industrial production gained +4.4% y/y in August, easing from +4.8% in the prior month. The growth rate came in weaker than consensus of +5.2% and marks the slowest in over 17 years. The rapid slowdown was partly driven by the cutback of production ahead of Octo

<p>Headline CPI in China rose to +3% y/y in September, reaching PBOC’s target for first time since December 2013. However, this was driven by elevated pork price rather than improvement in household spending. Food price jumped +11.2%, accelerating from +10% in August. This was predominantly driven by pork price which soared +69.3% y/y in Sept

<p>In contrast to February’s RBA meeting statement, which demonstrated a less dovish outlook, the minutes revealed that the members considered lowering the policy rate further. Yet, they decided to keep the powder dry on concerns over “risks associated with very low interest rates”. The central bank was upbeat about the housing market. While

<p>The FOMC minutes for the January meeting revealed that policymakers remained content about the domestic growth outlook. However, they acknowledged the growing uncertainty emerged from the coronavirus outbreak. This could present significant downside risks to global growth. The situation of the epidemic has deteriorated significantly since

<p>RBA is expected to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% in March. However, disastrous coronavirus outbreak in China is expected to hurt Australia’s economy, triggering the members to push forward further easing in as soon as April. Indeed, the market has priced in 60% chance of a rate cut in April, up from 25% […]

<p>The market has priced in a 60% chance of a BOC rate cut this week, up from virtually 0% two weeks ago. While moderation in domestic growth has suggested that further easing is likely, the coronavirus outbreak and its impact have the potential to push forward the rate cut schedule. Further easing is likely given […]