US 10 year yield up 50 basis points from its February 2 low

<p>The US 10 year yield is up around 2.7 basis points at 3.834%. The yield has moved up eight of the last nine trading days since bottoming on February 2 at a low of 3.326. With the yield currently at 3.834, that is a rise of over 50 basis points in a relatively short amount of time.</p><p>Looking at the daily chart of the <a href="" class="terms__main-term" id="bc27d1fa-0b41-4192-ac3a-48794fd4ff1e" target="_blank">yield</a>, the move higher has now taken the yield back above the 100 day MA at 3.74%. The next key target comes in at 3.905%. That is home to swing lows and recent swing highs from November and the end of December. Move above that level and the it increases the upside bias for the yield. </p><p>With the average mortgage life at around 11 years, the 10 year yield is thought to be a barometer for the mortgage market. Yesterday, the weekly mortgage application data was released. The average 30 year mortgage rate moved up to 6.39%. That is up from 6.18% at recent lows (for that data release). </p><p>That mortgage yield is likely higher given the more recent run higher in rates this week. </p><p>Higher rates could put the kabosh on the recent rebound in the housing market that has shown some anecdotal signs of life. Having said that, the housing date released today showed housing starts down sharply to 1.309M from 1.371M last month (-4.5%). For building permits, the level was little changed on the month with a gain of 0.1%. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at