October forex seasonals: It was a volatile September, what comes next?

<p>At the start of September, I <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/september-forex-seasonals-its-a-bad-month-for-stock-markets-20220831/" target="_blank">wrote about the seasonals</a> and warned that it was a bad month for stock markets with a note that it was the worst calendar month for the S&P 500. It certainly delivered with an 8.7% decline.</p><p>In FX, the US dollar continued its year-long parade higher in September. It was a wild ride with incredible fundamental opportunities in the forex market. We leave the month with market participants in a horrible mood. The AAII sentiment survey is 60.8% bearish this week and that means -- for the first time in the history of the survey dating back to 1987 -- it's +60% for two weeks running. It's also only the 6th time above 60% ever.</p><p>Everyone is sensing a recession. That's usually an opportunity but what do the seasonals say?</p><ul><li>Second best month for AUD</li><li>Fourth best month for the dollar index</li><li>Weakest month for EUR/AUD</li><li>Third weakest month for the euro</li><li>Third-best month for the Nasdaq (and not far off from the best), though volatility is high with double digit gains/losses not uncommon</li><li>Fourth best month for the S&P 500</li><li>Third best month for the DAX</li><li>Strongest month of the year for natural gas</li><li>Weakest month of the year for oil</li><li>Seasonal weakness in bonds</li></ul>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

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