EURUSD Technical Outlook 6-10 July 2020
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<h1><span lang="id">European Union Recovery Fund</span></h1>
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<p><strong>European Commission President Charles Michel</strong> is expected to propose a compromise plan – mainly to convince the Dutch to join – to be reviewed at the meeting of the Eurogroup Finance Ministers on <strong>July 9.</strong></p>
<p><strong>EURUSD</strong> has been appreciated recently, supported by dollar softness amid a risk-on backdrop in global markets today as Chinese state media push the recovery story even as the WHO reported a record daily number for Covid-19 infections over the weekend. More above-forecast data has come, this time out of the Eurozone, with both May retail sales figures and the July Sentix investor confidence index surpassing expectations, which has been a theme in global data releases since May. The EU’s proposed EUR 750 bln multiannual financial framework fund has been taken as a positive step in analysts commentaries, being a hinge factor of some recent bullish euro calls, on the basis of it reducing eurozone breakup risk while creating a new liquid and higher-yielding AAA asset, which will attract inflows from real money investors and reserve managers.</p>
<p><strong>Markets look likely to remain trapped in a constant state of tweaking risk premia, which for EURUSD means downside pressure when the Dollar gains on safe haven demand, and upside pressure when things are looking more rosy.</strong></p>
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<h2>Technical View</h2>
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<p><strong>EURUSD</strong> continued to hold sideways trading last week and the outlook has not changed. Initial bias remains neutral for this week and more sideways trading is seen. On the negative side, a break of <strong>1.1168</strong> will target the 61.8% retracement at <strong>1.1080</strong> and further at <strong>1.1018.</strong> On the positive side, a break of <strong>1.1348</strong> is likely to resume gains from <strong>1.0635</strong> through testing <strong>1.1422</strong> to <strong>1.1496</strong> key resistance.</p>
<p><a href="https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4.jpg"><img class="size-large wp-image-147185 aligncenter td-animation-stack-type0-2" src="https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4-1024x461.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px" srcset="/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4-1024x461.jpg 1024w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4-300x135.jpg 300w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4-768x346.jpg 768w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4-696x313.jpg 696w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4-1068x481.jpg 1068w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4-933x420.jpg 933w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-H4.jpg 1366w" alt="" width="696" height="313" /></a></p>
<p>In the 4-hour chart, price patterns tend to form triangles, with average prices still above the 120-EMA and 200-EMA, while technical support sees RSI and MACD flat at the neutral zone.</p>
<p><a href="https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd.jpg"><img class="size-large wp-image-147195 aligncenter td-animation-stack-type0-2" src="https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-1024x461.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px" srcset="/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-1024x461.jpg 1024w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-300x135.jpg 300w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-768x346.jpg 768w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-696x313.jpg 696w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-1068x481.jpg 1068w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd-933x420.jpg 933w, https://analysis.trade-hf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/eurusd.jpg 1366w" alt="" width="696" height="313" /></a></p>
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<p>In the bigger picture, as long as the <strong>1.1496</strong> resistance holds, the downward trend from the <strong>1.2555</strong> peak (2018 high) will continue. The next targets are <strong>1.0870</strong> and <strong>1.0635</strong> (March low). However, a continued break through <strong>1.1496</strong> will imply that the downtrend has been completed.</p>
<p><strong>Click </strong><a href="https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html"><strong>here</strong></a><strong> to access the Economic Calendar</strong></p>
<p><strong>Ady Phangestu and Andria Pichidi</strong></p>
<p><strong>Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia</strong></p>
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