Daily Market Outlook, June 12, 2020
<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, June 12, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><span><strong>Asian equities are lower this morning following big declines in the European and US market yesterday.</strong> However, most Asian markets have pared their earlier losses and European and US futures are mixed. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Reports attribute the sell-off to concerns about Wednesday’s comments from Fed Chair Powell that the economic recovery may be protracted and to signs of a rise in US coronavirus cases.</strong> US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said “we can’t shut the economy down again” even if cases rise. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Media sources report that if no deal is reached with the EU on a future relationship by year-end the UK initially plans to apply less rigorous border checks on EU imports.</strong> Earlier this week a UK minister confirmed that the government will officially tell the EU today that it will not ask for an extension of the Brexit transition period past year end. UK PM Johnson and EC President von der Leyen will hold high level talks on Monday. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Just released data show that UK GDP fell by 20.4% in April when much of the economy was in lockdown for the whole month.</strong> Activity fell sharply across all three main sectors with industrial production -20.3%, construction -40.1% and services -19.0%. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Today’s reading for April Eurozone industrial production is also expected to confirm a big fall in activity similar to that seen in the UK.</strong> Already released data for the four largest economies all showed large falls in output (of between 17.9% and 21.8%), which is unsurprising considering that lockdowns were in place throughout the month. That means that a drop of close to 20% is likely for the region as a whole. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>The June University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be watched for signs of an upturn in the US as restrictions start to ease.</strong> May data recorded a small improvement on April, although the reading was still the second lowest for the year and was almost 30 points below February’s pre-pandemic level. Markets will be looking for a rise in expectations about both current and future conditions. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>Early Monday, May China readings for retail sales, industrial production and fixed investment will provide further indications of the extent of the rebound in activity since restrictions started to be lifted.</strong> As the first country into and out of lockdown China’s example may give clues of what is likely to happen elsewhere. Data so far show some pickup across all parts of the economy, although industrial activity seems to have picked up more sharply than retail spending. </span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: 1.1270-75 (750M), </span><b>1.1305-10 (1.2BLN)</b><span>, 1.1350 (350M) 1.1370-80 (800M), </span><b>1.1430-35 (1.2BLN)</b></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: 107.35 (450M), 108.00 (850M)</span></li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<h3><span>Technical & Trade Views</span></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.1250 targeting 1.1420</b></p>
<p><span>From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.1250 acts as support bulls will look for a test of offers and stops at 1.14 before we likely see another round of profit taking. A closing breach of 1.1230 would suggest a broader corrective phase to test bids back towards 1.10 before the next leg higher. UPDATE potential for another test of 1.1250 bids before targeting the offers and stops above 1.14 UPDATE Target achieved, profit taking move overnight as 1.1260/80 supports bulls now target a retest of year to date highs offers and stops at 1.15</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45159" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.20.48.png" alt="" width="2126" height="1191" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.20.48.png 2126w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.20.48-300×168.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.20.48-1024×574.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.20.48-768×430.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.20.48-1536×860.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.20.48-2048×1147.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2126px) 100vw, 2126px" /></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.26 targeting 1.28</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.26 supports on pull back look for a test of 1.28 descending trendline and the 78.6% retracement of the covid crisi decline, from here we could see a broader profit taking move and correction. On the day only a close back below 1.2575 would suggest the current cycle has completed. UPDATE Target achieved, profit taking move overnight, as 1.2650 support bulls will play for a test of 1.2850 daily descending trendline resistance where we may witness more substantial supply as the catalyst for a corrective phase to develop</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45158" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.21.36.png" alt="" width="2131" height="1184" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.21.36.png 2131w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.21.36-300×167.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.21.36-1024×569.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.21.36-768×427.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.21.36-1536×853.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.21.36-2048×1138.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2131px) 100vw, 2131px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY Bias: Bearish below 1.09 targeting 1.07</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, the topside breach of 108.50 delays downside objectives opening a retest of range resistance above 109, however as supply above 1.09 stems the upside look for a retest of buds back to 1.08 UPDATE the upside breach of 1.09 suggests range expansion with 110.70 the upside object as 1.09 supports UPDATE sharp rejection above 109.50 suggests a return to range trade and a retest of support back to 107 UPDATE target achieved as 108 caps upside attempts bears will play for a test of year to date lows to 106 </span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45160" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.22.11.png" alt="" width="2102" height="1175" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.22.11.png 2102w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.22.11-300×168.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.22.11-1024×572.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.22.11-768×429.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.22.11-1536×859.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.22.11-2048×1145.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2102px) 100vw, 2102px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .6900 targeting .7085)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective,sustained price action above .6800 witnessed the grind higher persist opening a test of the psychological bit figure at .7000. From this initial foray above .7000 anticipate profit taking pullback to .6800 UPDATE target achieved as .6950 supports look for test of stops to .7050 UPDATE offers and stops towards .7100 look vulnerable, expect supply above .7100 to drive a test of bids back towards .6900</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45162" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.39.33.png" alt="" width="2130" height="1182" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.39.33.png 2130w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.39.33-300×166.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.39.33-1024×568.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.39.33-768×426.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.39.33-1536×852.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-12-08.39.33-2048×1136.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2130px) 100vw, 2130px" /></p>
<p><i><span>Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.</span></i></p>
<p><i><span>High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</span></i></p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://blog.tickmill.com/tech-analysis/daily-market-outlook-june-12-2020/">Daily Market Outlook, June 12, 2020</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://blog.tickmill.com">Tickmill</a>.</p>
Leave a Comment