Daily Market Outlook, July 21, 2020

<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, July 21, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><span><strong>US equity market closed higher, supported by technology stocks in particular but also by reported falling pace of increases in coronavirus cases in the US and positive news on early-stage vaccine trials from Oxford University</strong>. Asian equity indices were mostly higher overnight, while futures markets point to a positive start to European trading. The main news overnight was that EU leaders agreed a €750bn recovery plan following marathon talks. The compromise in the end means that €390bn of the funds will be disbursed as grants, down from €500bn initially proposed, while €360bn will be given as loans to be paid back by individual countries. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>There is little in the economics calendar to excite financial markets today.</strong> UK June public finance figures were released earlier this morning showing net borrowing of £35.5bn (exbanks), lower than the consensus forecast for £38bn. Still, it compares with £7.2bn in the same month a year ago. Borrowing so far this financial year has totalled nearly £128bn and net debt has risen to 99.6% of GDP. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>The US Chicago Fed survey is expected to show a further improvement.</strong> Canadian retail sales are forecast to have bounced back by around 20% in June after plunging more than 25% in May. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras take part in a panel discussion</strong>. With the European recovery fund agreed, investors will turn their attention towards details of a further stimulus package in the US. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are expected to start negotiations on the next virus relief plan.</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: </span><b>.1345-50 (1.2BLN), </b><span>1.1450 (400M), 1.1500 (650M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY: 106.00 (650M), </span><b>106.35-45 (1.45BLN)</b><span>, 106.75 (431M) 106.85 (410M), 107.00 (452M), </span><b>107.30-40 (1.5BLN)</b><span>, 107.50-55(770M)</span></li>
<li><span>AUDUSD 0.6860-70 (735M), 0.6965 (198M), 0.7000 (180M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>Technical &amp; Trade Views</strong></h3>
<p><b>EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.1150 targeting 1.15</b></p>
<p><span>EURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, increasingly looking like a buy the rumour sell the fact set up, price looks poised to probe offers and stops to 1.15, watch for bearish reversal patterns on a fade the news play as initial optimism over the deal develops into a lack of detail in the plan and profit taking kicks in. Anticipate the potential for a pullback 1.14/1.1380</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-47394" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.07.png" alt="" width="2146" height="1198" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.07.png 2146w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.07-300×167.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.07-1024×572.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.07-768×429.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.07-1536×857.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.07-2048×1143.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2146px) 100vw, 2146px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.25 targeting 1.28</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.25 attracts sufficient demand, look for a grind higher to test offers and stop at 1.28. A closing breach of 1.25 suggests return to range and a test of range support at 1.2250</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-47395" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.24.png" alt="" width="2156" height="1204" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.24.png 2156w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.24-300×168.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.24-1024×572.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.24-768×429.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.24-1536×858.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.24-2048×1144.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2156px) 100vw, 2156px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 107.50 Bearish below</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, anticipated test of the equality objective at 108.13 saw bearish reversal patterns, setting up a move for  another test of 106 enroute to a pivotal 105 test UPDATE equality objective achieved as 107.30 caps the upside look for  a retest of 106.30’s</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-47396" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.39.png" alt="" width="2149" height="1199" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.39.png 2149w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.39-300×167.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.39-1024×571.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.39-768×428.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.39-1536×857.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.39-2048×1143.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2149px) 100vw, 2149px" /></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .6830 targeting .7100</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 6830 attracts buyers there remains scope to retest and break prior cycle highs en route to a .7100 test. Expect bids towards .6900 to act as support. A closing breach of .6900 opens another test of bullish appetite at .6880</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-47397" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.57.png" alt="" width="2154" height="1200" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.57.png 2154w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.57-300×167.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.57-1024×570.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.57-768×428.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.57-1536×856.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screenshot-2020-07-21-08.20.57-2048×1141.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2154px) 100vw, 2154px" /></p>
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